Singapore has the 5th lowest Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the world - what should we do?

BY EUGENE TOH

Our Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is at an all time low of 1.10 (2020) and we are also bottom 5 in ranking world-wide. For the population to replace itself - we need a TFR of 2.1. Total live births was 49,402 in 1992, 40760 in 2002, 42663 in 2012 & 38590 in 2020. (2012 was a Dragon year).

Other than being a JC Economics tutor, I’m also a father of three and we are expecting another one soon - but there are very few friends around me who would have four children. So my family is an exception rather than the norm these days.

An urgent issue we should work towards resolving

The low birth rates mean that the working population will shrink over time. This means that the working population will likely have to shoulder a larger tax burden. Schools have also undergone mergers in the last few years because of shrinking cohort sizes. Not to mention, the number of students taking A Level Economics tuition will be shrinking(!)

We are also not likely to continue to augment our workforce with more foreign labour as has become politically unpopular to do so in many countries. In fact, due to the pandemic, our foreign workforce numbers have decreased substantially from 1.427 million in Dec 2019 to 1.197 million in June 2021. That’s a whopping 230,000 less foreign workers in Singapore or a 16% decrease.

Why are we having less children?

The high cost of living in Singapore is commonly cited as one of the key reasons why people have less children / delay childbirth / are not keen to have children. You do need to set aside some expenditure monthly for diapers, infant milk formula, food, toys & childcare (if both parents are working). For young couples who have just started working, they might not have much savings or remaining budget from their monthly income to accommodate taking care of a child.

Some regard the prime child-bearing years to be also the prime career-building years and thus, will prefer to spend these years building a successful career.

Friends of mine who are currently married with children got attached during or before university days. I think it can be harder to find a life partner to settle down with after starting work as your social circle can get smaller / limited.

The ‘stressful’ education system is often blamed for couples not wanting to have children or have more children as again, many feel compelled to provide their children with enrichment & tuition which again imposes a financial burden. This however, I feel is somewhat more dependent on individual expectations.

Many of the above reasons are somewhat related to our expectations as a society of what child-rearing entails & also because of practical financial reasons.

Whatever the reasons are - we should continually find ways to raise the birth rates!

Make prenatal care FOC

Prenatal care refers to the visits to the gynae, costs of supplements, hospital stay & medical related expenses from surgery / c-sections. Here’s a detailed post on how much it could cost you in Singapore. 

Let’s consider this - medical care / hospital care is free of charge for active NSFs serving their two years of National Service. We do this because these men are serving the nation. Considering our critically low birth rates, I would argue that women giving birth to children in Singapore are doing a “National Service” and should be provided with free medical care.

This can at least make the starting journey (the pregnancy itself) more frictionless, by alleviating the financial burden on young parents and giving them a headstart through free medical care.

This would likely cost the government close to a billion dollars yearly - but a worthy investment given the low birth rates we have!

More support in the early years

Parents already do get the Baby Bonus, along-side with matching topups in the Child Development Account (CDA) + Medisave grants which parents can use for their child’s medical expenses.

We can continue to ‘nationalise’ pre-schools and childcare to make early childhood education as affordable as our government schools from primary through pre-tertiary education. We could also consider increasing the length of paternity leave from 2 weeks perhaps to 2 months.

Mothers who undergo childbirth rightfully deserve a longer maternity leave to recover but fathers can also benefit from the ability to spend more time with their newborns.
These can all help parents feel less ‘friction’ on getting started on the journey to having children.

P1 Registration

Many parents are stressed about P1 registration. At the present point, there are several phases of registration.

Phase 1 - Those with siblings already in the school

Phase 2A - Alumni / Member of School Advisory Committee / Staff

Phase 2B - Parent Volunteer / Endorsed by Church / Clan connected to school / Active Community Leader

Phase 2C - Anybody

At the onset, there are 40 places reserved for Phase 2C (w.e.f. 2022) and 20 places reserved for Phase 2B.

Say if a school has 240 places in total - 180 seats will be made available to Phase 1, the leftover vacancies, Phase 2A and this cascades downwards.

In 2021 for example

An overwhelming number of places go to the Alumni of the school (by virtue of where your parents used to study). Typically by the end of Phase 2A, most of the vacancies in popular schools have already been filled.

This doesn’t just apply to the traditional top schools listed in the table above but also to many neighbourhood schools because of population density in various housing estates.

There were several changes to the policy last year, such as reserving an extra 20 more seats for Phase 2C, increasing the total number of reserved seats to Phase 2C.

Phase 1 makes sense due to simplified logistics of sending all your children to one school - but having Phase 2A be the first ‘priority’ phase with no specific caps - makes little sense. If anything, Phase 2A and Phase 2B should be capped at ⅓ of the total vacancies available in the school. Phase 2C would be purely based on distance.

Given that Primary school starts really early - we should have the little ones go to a school near their homes so they can rest and have more much needed sleep!

Policy planning should be done based on logical and pragmatic approaches.