To ban or not to ban Personal Mobility Devices - A Decision Making Exercise
The government has recently banned the use of Personal Mobility Devices (PMDs) on footpaths & roads.
In this week’s lesson, we had a debate on whether this is a ‘right’ decision to make, and this is my follow-up post on that.
Is a PMD ban on footpaths and roads a right decision?
Do the costs of PMDs on footpaths and roads significantly outweigh the benefits?
There are two groups of PMDs users, the casual users and the food delivery riders. Casual users use it for leisure and last mile connectivity, while food delivery riders use it to make a living.
Casual PMD riders
Let’s first consider the case of casual users. The use of PMDs in general should be encouraged if we are thinking of making a shift to a car-lite society. The ease and convenience from the use of PMDs can allow individuals to consider using PMDs as an extension of the public transport system for last mile connectivity. However, such a benefit does not erase the dangers associated with high-speed, heavy PMDs which can cause danger to pedestrians.
Food delivery riders
Next, let’s consider the case of food delivery riders. Food delivery riders use PMDs to make a living, they benefit from PMDs because PMDs involve relatively low capital requirements compared to motorbikes. Alternatives such as bicycle or motorbikes can be used to make food deliveries but they have higher barriers to entry - as i) considerable level of fitness will be required to make a good number of trips on bicycles and ii) a motorbike will require taking a licence.
That said, we should be mindful that the current demand for food delivery riders may not be sustainable. The demand for food delivery riders is a derived demand - food delivery riders are demanded to make food delivery trips. Presently, food delivery riders are able to make the income that they are making because of the large number of food delivery trips demanded for. This current demand is ‘artificially high’ because food delivery trips are being heavily subsidised by food delivery companies as they are engaged in predatory pricing in a bid to compete for customer acquisition.
At some point, when the market consolidate, prices of food deliveries will go up, correspondingly, quantity demanded for food deliveries will go down, and there will be less demand for food delivery riders.
Food delivery riders cannot expect to definitely be able to sustain the kind of income they are making today when that happens. Looking at the case with Uber / Grab - this appears to be only a matter of time. (remember how drivers with Uber / Grab used to be rewarded with incentives? and how users used to get discount vouchers almost on a daily basis? where has that gone now?).
Thus, when we consider the benefit that PMDs have to food delivery riders, we also have to be mindful that the benefits may not be long-term to begin with.
Pedestrians
Pedestrians are subjected to higher risks of accidents when PMDs share the footpaths. In some cases, accidents with PMDs have caused serious injury and death. The safety considerations for PMDs cannot be underestimated.
Pedestrians - vulnerable individuals
We also need to consider the case of vulnerable individuals. Vulnerable individuals include young children, pregnant women and the elderly. Parents and family members of such vulnerable individuals may live in a climate of fear and are worried to even walk about freely, take strolls in their own estate considering the possibility of being involved in an accident with the PMDs.
In my opinion, apart from the risk of PMDs related accidents, the fear climate that PMDs have created is equally important to take into consideration.
Homeowners & fires
An extra factor to consider is the high battery capacity of the PMDs, and that multiple charging related incidents have caused fire breakouts which has affected people living in the same block.
Retailers
One last group whom was heavily affected were retailers of PMDs. I do empathise with these retailers, with one reportedly stuck with $1.5 million worth of e-scooters. The sudden ban would have really significantly affected these retailers badly - but we must also remember this - that the decision to stock up with this amount of stock, is a business decision, and a business risk that unfortunately, retailers do have to be responsible for. The government did hinted previously that a ban was in the cards if the situation does not improve.
Everything taken into consideration, it does appear to me that, the costs associated with allowing PMDs on footpaths far outweigh the benefits at this juncture.
Is there no other way to mitigate the dangers associated with PMDs?
In other words, should we have just directly imposed a ban on PMDs?
The government actually does recognise that PMDs do confer some benefits to some parties, and that is why there is no outright ban at the start. I think what the government was trying to do, was to try using legislation to mitigate the harm and dangers associated with e-scooters while signalling to the public that a ‘ban’ was in the cards if ‘behaviour’ does not improve. The government has initially tried imposing some form of legislation, such as registration of e-scooter, allowing only certain models which are of a certain fire safety standard (UL2272)
They didn’t at that moment have enough information to make a decision about a ban, and thus the legislation rolled-out was based on the information they had at that particular juncture.
After rolling out legislation, they must have found that the incidents/accidents pertaining to PMDs did not go down substantially - leading to a decision of a ban.
What could have been done instead of an outright ban?
Firstly, the government needs to make a decision on whether PMDs do have significant benefits in terms of enabling a car-lite society. If the answer is, yes - then we need to take time, money, some land-space to invest in creating routes parallel to foot-paths for cyclists and PMD-riders.
Next, instead of an outright ban, I would suppose the following could potentially be a good solution to the PMD issue
Restrict casual users of PMDs to Park Connectors
The reason for restricting casual users of PMDs to Park Connectors is to recognise that the costs associated with accidents with PMDs is really quite high, and we should reduce this risk as much as it is possible. Given that casual users use PMDs for leisure and improving last mile connectivity, there is no need to take this risk until there are appropriate infrastructure put in place for the use of PMDs (a separate path as proposed earlier)
Licensing for food delivery riders with a demerit system
Food delivery riders should be first made to take a safety course (before allowing them on footpaths), with costs borne by food delivery companies. Upon passing the safety course, they will be issued a licence. (the way we do for cars, but probably a lot simpler / faster)
Due to high costs & monitoring required with the enforcement of a full fledged demerit point system, the demerit system will be a simple one, a 2 strike or 3 strikes rule. If they are found in breach of safety regulations through speeding, riding dangerously or using unapproved PMDs, on their 3rd infringement - they will be permanently banned from being granted a PMD licence.
The logic behind this, is simple. If food delivery riders, value the job, then they will take and exercise responsibility in ensuring that they ride safely and reduce accidents to the best of their ability - follow the rules. There will be little moral hazard involved here considering that if they repeatedly flout safety rules, they will no longer be able to do food deliveries using PMDs.
If it is in the country’s interest to build the necessary infrastructure for a separate PMD-Cycling Track over the long-term, then while waiting for the infrastructure to be put in place, the licensing regime and only allowing food delivery riders to use footpaths could be an interim solution.
This is what we should do when we are considering a decision-making matrix - identify all the different stakeholders in relation to PMDs and look at what benefits & costs are present for them in association with the proliferation of PMDs in Singapore
Distributors & Sellers of PMDs in Singapore
Benefits
Retailers make profits from the sale of PMDs.
[https://blog.moneysmart.sg/budgeting/best-electric-scooter-lta-singapore/]
According to the above website, prices range from $399 to $699.
Costs
Nil
Analysis
The proliferation of PMDs has been profitable for resellers / distributors of PMDs
Food Delivery Companies (Grab, Foodpanda, Deliveroo)
Benefits
Increased number of delivery riders (as opposed to only depending on riders who use motorbikes to do deliveries).
This could shorten delivery times and increase the customer acquisition for food delivery companies.
It could also be possible that Food Delivery companies may pay less per trip to delivery riders using PMDs compared to those delivering with motorcycles
Costs
Food delivery companies probably make a loss on every ride made by delivery riders
Analysis
While food delivery companies benefit from an increase in number of riders who are able to make food deliveries from the proliferation of PMDs, what they are trying to do is to gain customer acquisition & compete against rival firms as opposed to increased profitability
PMD Riders (Food Delivery)
Benefits
PMD Riders benefit in the short term as they are able to make use of a relatively low cost tool (when compared to motorbikes) in making deliveries. This helps them earn an income with relatively low capital outlay.
Costs
PMD Riders are unlikely to benefit in the long term. The endgame for food delivery companies will go in the way of Uber-Grab. A merger will occur and/or the ‘losing’ firms will exit the market. Market will be consolidated, which will end the days of cheap food deliveries with no more significant subsidies. Prices will go up, quantity demanded for food deliveries will go down. Correspondingly, there will be less requirements for PMD Riders and they will get less jobs/trips.
What probably makes things worse - food delivery companies do not need to pay ‘retrenchment benefits’ when this happens.
If they left a lower pay, but relatively more stable job to do food deliveries, they will likely have been worse off in the long-run.
Analysis
PMD Riders may benefit from the proliferation of PMDs in the short run, but many PMD Riders may actually suffer in the long run when the market for food delivery consolidates the way that private-hire rides did.
PMD Riders (Casual)
Benefits
For casual PMD Riders, they either use PMDs for leisure and / or last mile transport.
This improves the number of leisure options as well as enhancing their commute through reducing travel time.
Costs
Cost of PMD
Analysis
Overall, PMDs are beneficial to such casual riders, but they are not essential because there are substitutes available
Consumers of Delivered Food
Benefits
With PMDs, there is an increase in number of delivery riders, bringing about faster deliveries.
If food delivery companies pass on any potential lower cost to consumers, consumers will also experience cheaper deliveries.
Costs
Nil
Analysis
Proliferation of PMDs have for sure been beneficial to consumers of delivered food!
Pedestrians
Benefits
Nil
Costs
Indiscriminate use of PMDs can cause death.
[https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/elderly-woman-bedok-pmd-escooter-collision-dies-in-hospital-11942568]
[https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/man-dies-after-losing-control-of-e-scooter-along-tanah-merah-11949704]
Analysis
We have to consider beyond just the accidents that took place causing death, but also how the general public especially the vulnerable such as children, parents with young children, pregnant women and the elderly may not feel safe walking on footpaths and pedestrian walkways anymore following the reporting of such incidents.
Homeowners
Benefits
Nil
Costs
Potential fires from PMD battery explosions
[https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/two-pmd-related-fires-break-out-on-monday-morning]
Analysis
When fires break-out in high-rise buildings such as HDBs & Condos, they can affect more than 1 unit. At the very least, smoke inhalation can affect others from the break-out of such fires related to PMD battery charging